Let’s face it, if you didn’t believe that things will eventually turn around in our economy; home prices will stabilize and begin to appreciate again, the stock market will start to go up and companies will start hiring again, you would be out on the ledge of a very tall building. Even the least optimistic of us believes or knows that there is a bottom to EVERY declining market, it’s just a matter of time. What types of things should we look for to indicate the bottom might be near?
I’m not economist, as a matter of fact I struggled to get a passing grade in Economics in college, but I do consider myself to be a little more than a casual observer of economic indexes and the like. It probably comes from the fact that I have a background in the mortgage industry and spent most of the past 10 years trying to determine where mortgage rates were headed. That said, I have noticed a plethora of really bad news lately and in my experience in life, it seems, to quote a famous cliché, “that it is always darkest before the dawn.” So here is my short list of recent dark statistic;
- Unemployment applications hit highest level in recorded time.
- The stock market is down roughly 50% from it’s October 08 high and currently at levels not seen since about 1997.
- Our economy shrank at the fastest pace in 26 years, at the end of 2008.
- The median price of a home has declined to it’s lowest point since March of 2003.
There are more dark stats but I thought these were some pretty good ones that are affecting most of us. So the bottom line is that you either believe this recession will continue to spiral out of control, ultimately surpassing the great depression, or you don’t. If you do believe that we are headed for another great depression, stop reading and start looking for a ledge. Make sure the ledge is high enough that the fall will kill you, the last thing the economy needs today is a bunch of people on disability income because they lost faith in the American dream. If however, you believe like me and most other Americans that things will turn around, consider the evidence I shared above as an indicator that the end is near and the recovery is in sight.
Again, I am clearly not an economist and my thoughts are based only on a lifetime of observing and a strong dose of optimism but the fact is, based on the numbers above, things can’t get a whole lot worse and with that in mind, I choose to see the glass as half full!
Oh, and by the way, if you are sitting on a pile of cash waiting for things to turn around, get off your ass and make it happen! Just a thought.